Butlers Latest
 

Pounding away on silver eagles again , Great argument I must say. 15 year holdtime for rewards ? Post Trib I guess:sarcasm:

It�s hard to write about silver in the same newsletter where Ted Butler writes. Mr. Butler fights for the good of the silver investor and he fights against manipulation, plus he makes a very convincing case for why to own silver. I know based upon the statistics, Mr. Butler is right about the manipulation of the silver market. Mark my words; some day they will be studying Mr. Butler�s articles in the universities and business schools.

Speaking about manipulation, I�m surprised that the CFTC and COMEX directors don�t intervene and stop this manipulation. It�s so obvious, looking at the actions of the 4 or less traders in gold and silver, that this group is managing the price. No good will come from this, and I hope they will not close down the COMEX in the future. If Mr. Butler�s arguments are correct and the directors of COMEX don�t do anything, as public company directors, they will be responsible.

I�m very surprised that the CFTC and the COMEX doesn�t release the names of the big shorts. I remember when the Hunt Brothers and then Warren Buffett bought silver, their names were in the newspapers daily. Please make the shorts names public, and we will ask the right questions. It�s the fair thing to do.

I�m going to tell you why silver is the best investment available today. The first question you have to ask yourself is why silver should be good for the future. Here�s what determines that;


Is silver a necessary metal?
Are world stocks of silver lower than 5 years ago?
Are world stocks of silver likely to be lower in 5 years?
Is there a chance, at some point, to have a shortage in silver?
If the answers will be yes on those 4 questions, the probabilities are that owning silver will enrich you in the future.

Based upon this formula, the answers for gold are "no" for all the 4 questions, so in the future, we could see devastation for gold prices. And if gold prices hold, or move higher, the comparisons will even be better for silver. Take into consideration this point � silver is a rare and strategic metal and industry cannot do without silver. Today we are left with a minimal supply and this can produce a worldwide shortage of silver.

Money cannot solve a shortage of material, only material can. When the industrial users come into the market for real material, the shorts will be destroyed. At that time we will have a bigger scandal than the subprime mortgage crisis of today. In my opinion, we need a shortage to put silver in a free market. When this occurs the real value will come and no one can predict what the price will be.

Mr. Butler has a modest view on future prices, and my opinion is more extreme. I can see very high prices. If I tell you the price you will need a seatbelt, not to fall from your chair. With this kind of opinion on future silver prices, what is the best single form for buying and holding real silver? Looking at my crystal ball, considering that a silver shortage is likely, and that silver prices will then reach or exceed the price of gold; I think silver Eagles are the best way to own silver. Why?

I can see silver prices so high, that the risk of imitation or phony silver coming to market will be great. Great price increases always bring out frauds and crooks. People will want to be sure they are buying the real thing. Coins are more difficult to counterfeit than paper instruments. At current silver prices, there has been no big incentive to counterfeit silver Eagles or other forms of silver. Because the US Mint produces silver Eagles, an added level of protection against counterfeiting is present. The US Government does not sit still on counterfeiting.

Because Silver Eagles are sold at a premium to the price of silver from the Mint to wholesalers, few if any of the 160 million regular silver Eagles minted and sold since 1986 have been, or will ever be melted for their silver content. The same with millions of more expensive Proof Eagles and commemorative silver coins issued by the Mint. Silver Eagles that are sold by investors are bought by other coin investors. Therefore, the silver used in Eagle production is taken off the market, in my opinion, forever.

But the premium on Silver Eagles will explode someday, because the Mint will stop making them in the future. When the silver shortage comes, and prices start to escalate wildly, the US Government will not wish to aggravate the shortage by continuing to take silver off the market. By then, the users will be screaming for relief from high silver prices and the mint will see this.

According to Mr. Butler, before the gold and silver Eagle program began in 1986, it was decided that, in order not to hurt domestic miners, only metal purchased from domestic miners would be used in the Eagle program, so government owned metal wasn�t dumped on the market.

But the Silver Users Association, fearing higher silver prices because of demand for Silver Eagles, lobbied behind the scene to change things to their advantage. They couldn�t kill the program completely, but the silver users were still successful. Gold was left unchanged in that domestic production was to be used, but silver was changed so that only silver from the Strategic Defense Stockpile was to be used for Eagles, until it ran out, which it did in 2001. Since then, the US Mint has had to buy more than 50 million ounces of silver to produce silver Eagles.

It will not take much convincing by the silver users to get the US Mint to cease production of Silver Eagles, when the silver shortage hits. So a premium could develop, if and when that happens. The same kind of premium that develops when an artist dies and it becomes known there will be no more new works of art from him. Now some may say, what kind of numismatic premium could develop on a modern bullion coin with a total amount in existence of more than 160 million? I say, a very big premium. The Silver Eagle is no ordinary coin. It is the world�s leading silver bullion coin. The US Government guarantees its purity and weight. It is recognized everywhere. In the years to come, people from all over, including India and China, will want to buy them. It is, in my opinion, the most beautiful coin in the world.

At any point in time, very few old Silver Eagles are available for sale in any large quantities. That�s because Silver Eagles are widely held by many small investors and coin collectors. Many are given as gifts and hold sentimental value. Grandparents, like me, set them aside for their grandchildren. Silver Eagles are not a trading vehicle, they are mostly held for the long term. The market relies on the fact that new coins from the Mint will always be available for sale, in order to satisfy new demand. But always isn�t forever.

When the shortage comes and silver explodes, the price will be so high that most people won�t be able to afford even a 100 ounce bar. Then, there will be much more demand for silver in one-ounce denominations, just like there is for gold today. That extra demand will put a bigger premium on the smaller pieces compared to bigger bars. The best small piece is the Silver Eagle and it will have the biggest premium of any other one-ounce choice. Also, it will be easier to sell in one-ounce pieces when prices are sky-high.

I think the premium on Silver Eagles will go to such crazy levels, that out of respect for Mr. Butler, I will not say a number, because he thinks it will sound too extreme. Instead, I will be very conservative and just say that in the future, when the silver shortage comes, the premium on Silver Eagles to the price of silver will be much greater than the total cost of an Eagle today. If that comes true, it�s like buying silver at today�s price for free.

To those who are inclined to own silver, buy Silver Eagles. To the gold investors, please change some gold into Silver Eagles. If anyone is lucky enough to buy, say, 1000 Silver Eagles or more, in 15 years it will be worth a sum that will shock you. Don�t think for one minute that I have a financial interest in selling Eagles. I don�t work for the Mint or for commissions. I write for love of silver and my friend Ted Butler.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

I think its time to order another green monster-- silvers down - maybe a buy op weekend. and some more 8" pvc.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Hmmm, this article assumes not enough people will be dumping silver eagles to lock in their profits.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

By the way, I enjoyed one of your recent articles Silverity.

Here is a link for people that haven't read it: http://www.24hgold.com/viewarticle.a...publishingyear=

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Take a current inflation graph... not a fabricated number that doesn't include food or fuel, and project 15 years forward (the time frame Izzy mentioned).
If inflation follows this same path (with current Fed Res. and Govt. Policy
it seems inevitiable to continue) why would anyone "dump" anything
that at least held its value vs. other commodities.

Selling slowly "as needed" might be a more plausible scenario.
Which would not cause the price of silver to drop.

I think a paradigm shift will occur and "locking in profits" meaning
converting to an unstable governmental paper will no longer be as desirable
as it is now.

Just a guess on my part :-)

In either case, Ted is a fortunate man to have such a loyal friend as Izzy.
Close family and loyal friends are more valuable than all the worlds
silver in gold.

Peace
TLM

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Anyone who reads actual writings of IZZY over on Eagle Ranch forums and then reads the articles "supposedly" written by IZZY on Butler's sight has to seriously question WHO IS EDITING THIS STUFF ?

Take a look for yourself:

http://os2eagle.net/SSL/forum/index.php

You will have to jump through some "clown hoops" to access the forum. First page, click on http://OS2Eagle.Net/SSL/phpentry.php and then "Forum only, no frames" and T H E N...... Primary Forum 1A colored box, top left.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

In the article, Mr. Watson has a time frame of 1993 to 2040 for his predictions to play out....how many of us will be around to see if he's correct? Given that kind of time, a case can be made for any investment. What he seems to be saying is quite similar in tone to the buy and hold crowd of SM fame....and if so, why not just put your money in the SM, wait for over 40 years, and see how it plays out? At least you can get dividends....

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Some people believe that everything supposedly written by Izzy is in fact written by Butler. I read allegations to that effect on the Yahoo! PAAS board and on the Kitco board a few years ago. The claim is that Butler uses his "Izzy" identity to write flattering things about himself.

What do you folks think; Izzy real or Izzy fake?

Re: Butlers Latest
 

I've accused "IZZY" of being a figment of Butler's imagination on ER more than once, stating the I thought he was the silver world's version of "ANOTHER", the fictitious far easterner fabricated a few years ago on the USAG Forum. I guess if you talk in the third person, you don't personally have to take any responsibility for what you think...... right, wrong, or otherwise. If you read the current supposed "IZZY" article, having read his other material, it becomes all too apparent that the article is not how "IZZY" writes, thinks, spells, or expresses himself.

Just read some of "IZZY'S" material on ER, and you will soon realize that he is a fraud. Nobody but NOBODY with the claimed "intelligence" of IZZY could possibly write with such consistent misspellings or poor grammar. He has become somewhat of the "village idiot" over on ER, and for good reason.

:thumpdown

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Izzy Nekked?

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Maybe "Izzy" is the real guy and "Ted Butler" is the imaginary friend?

Re: Butlers Latest
 

While checking out the www.silverminers.com site, I came across this article by Lorenzo Montana:

http://www.silverstrategies.com/stor...cal=0&id=10123

seems to sum up my feelings on gold and silver, and shows the shortcoming of Mr. Butler's beliefs

Re: Butlers Latest
 

the article by Lorenzo Montana is right on; but, those arguments are essentially Antal Fekete's, if you want to read additional arguments by Fekete, you can do a search; he has some great stuff

butler's biggest mistake in his analysis is that he tries to compare the short position in gold and silver to other commodities; the reason gold and silver have such a large and continous short position is because gold and silver are hoarded as money all over the globe. Things like copper, nickel, etc are not hoarded because that represents additional costs to miners and users if they are not put to use quickly. Other commodities are not useful as a store of wealth because of storage and wasting issues.

Gold and silver will always have large short positions because there is lots of it around. Butler seems to not be able to grasp this simple concept.

as far as Izzy; he is just a concocted figure by butler (IMO) so that butler has a way of communicating his wild claims about silver to his audience, without looking like a typical gold/silver kook. Butler would lose credibility if he came out and made wild claims about what the price of silver is going to do.

Butler writes for a website that sells overpriced gold and silver; he needs a mechanism to make fantastic claims to get people to buy their products.

Izzy is that mechanism.

If you go to the Investment Rarities (who bulter writes for) website, you will see they "coincidently" have a "special" right now on a 22 piece silver eagle set for $549.00

hmmm.....that works out to $24 dollars an ounce.......isn't that convenient....

Re: Butlers Latest
 

I just left my main metals guy who had NO silver.
No Generic, No junk....none.

When was the last time this happened with gold that you can remember?

When investors collectively wake-up and realize the truth about how little silver actually exists (in bullion form or not) the price will triple overnight.
It will then correct for a week or so (by not going up or down), people will then realize that nothing has changed, and it will continue to climb.

When this will happen , I believe, can now be talked about in terms of months rather than just years.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Go buy a 1996. Or as 1994 for that matter. That's like $90 right there.
Admittedly, $549.00 is not the best price you could possibly find, but it also is not ridiculous.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Here ya go.....dig in......yummy.
http://cgi.ebay.com/22-piece-set-NGC...QQcmdZViewItem

:confused_ma:

Re: Butlers Latest
 

I have not read it but here is my speculative short summary

'Silver is the most undervalued asset on planet Earth. A massive short squeeze is coming due to industrial and investor demand outstripping supply. Silver is inelastic meaning production cannot be ramped up quickly to satisfy a shortfall. The SEC are crooks and the COT position is about as realistic as time travel thru black holes and coming back 10 years younger. Barclay's don't have any silver in their vaults'

How close was I?

Not that I disagree.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

I just posted an "Izzy real or Izzy fake" poll on the main Precious Metals forum. Please vote, I'd like to know what y'all think.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

So you're Izzy.:wink:

Re: Butlers Latest
 

No, I am real :D

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Typical of the root of the problem right there........ a constant "parroting" of the same old regergitated Butler blather that he took up from those spreading the same sales spew as far back as the 1960s, i.e. Jerome Smith et al.

"You tell a lie big enough and often enough, and eventually it will be accepted as the truth".

Wake up to reality ! Stop being spoon fed by every plagerist on the planet about silver, Butler included, and use a little common sense while you try to think for yourself for a change.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

"Go buy a 1996. Or as 1994 for that matter. That's like $90 right there."

your link to that ebay auction is for a 22 piece eagle set that is NGC slabbed. The Investment Rarities 22 piece eagle set is not slabbed; it is common eagles.

A common 1996 on ebay looks like it goes for about $35. A common 1994 on ebay looks to have no premium over the normal eagle premium.

it is a complete ripoff to pay $549 for a 22 piece, common set, of silver eagles.

you can go on ebay right now and get a 22 piece set for $331.00.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

You need to search far and wide to find a dealer who charges more than IRI. The more I think about it I think Butler is just an in house shill for IRI.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

Common Eagles usually are MS69.
Open a tube from the mint.....out of those 20, nearly all qualify as NGC MS69.

As far as 22 different years on ebay for $331.00, where's your link?

Anyway, here's over-priced:
http://www.hsn.com/collectibles/1986...99662&ocm=sekw

Re: Butlers Latest
 

You're supposed to keep the green monster sealed up to have worth more. But if it becomes worth over $10,000 you will have to report it to the IRS-- that means taxes.

Re: Butlers Latest
 

"Common Eagles usually are MS69.
Open a tube from the mint.....out of those 20, nearly all qualify as NGC MS69.

As far as 22 different years on ebay for $331.00, where's your link?"


yes, you are right, common eagles usually are MS69, and nearly all of them out of a roll would qualify as NGC MS69.........BUT, they are not worth a premium UNLESS you get them slabbed from NGC.

IRI is selling NON slabbed silver eagles; Non slabbed eagles do not command a premium.

As far as a link, that is pretty easy, I spent about 30 seconds on ebay and found another one. On this one, you can "Buy it Now" for $399.00.

Your ebay link was to an ebay auction for 22 NGC slabbed eagles; your comparison is not an accurate one since what IRI is selling are non-slabbed eagles.

below is the link:

http://cgi.ebay.com/22-COIN-SILVER-E...QQcmdZViewItem

This is another example of why it is hard for gold and silver to get any serious respect because there are so many of the butler and "Izzy" types who are pumping it and leading people to buy extremely overpriced gold and silver products.